Chinese airlines extend free refunds on Japan routes to end-March 2026

Overview

On December 5, 2025, Chinese airlines, starting with China Eastern Airlines, announced one after another that free refunds and changes for tickets on Japan routes, originally available until December 31, 2025, would be extended to the end of March 2026. According to reports, Air China, China Southern Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Spring Airlines and Shanghai Airlines introduced similar measures.

Background

On November 14, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs advised Chinese citizens to avoid travel to Japan for the time being. The following day, the three major carriers, Air China, China Eastern and China Southern, announced free refunds and changes on Japan routes, and on November 16 the Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued a similar advisory.

According to data provided by aviation analytics firm Cirium to Caixin on November 24, scheduled flights between China and Japan planned for December were down by 268 flights, or about 94,000 seats, compared with the schedule as of November 14. Reports said the number of scheduled flights between the two countries had fallen to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The original free refund and change measures applied to travel up to December 31, and the extension means they now also cover the 2026 Spring Festival and the spring travel season.

Key Points

• Narita Airport: According to a December 3 report, Naoki Fujii, president of Narita International Airport Corporation, said that of roughly 300 weekly flights to and from China, reductions had so far been confirmed for about 10%. Cargo flights were unchanged, most cuts take effect from December, and the overall impact cannot yet be estimated.
• Weight of China and Hong Kong routes: In FY2024, routes to mainland China and Hong Kong accounted for about 25.4% of Narita's international routes and about 24% of its international passengers. In the first half of FY2025, their share of passengers was about 25.1%.
• Ports of entry: Among travelers entering Japan from China, Kansai Airport was the most used at 40.3%, followed by Narita (26%) and Haneda (18.9%).
• Share of visitors: Visitors from China made up 23% of foreign arrivals in Japan in January-October 2025, down from 30% in 2019. Group tours accounted for 11% of Chinese trips to Japan in April-June 2025, sharply down from 42.9% in 2015.

Reports in late November said that flight reductions by Chinese carriers were concentrated on routes such as those to Hokkaido, while services to Narita and Haneda were largely maintained. A Narita finance executive said the impact would be limited because the measure is a travel advisory rather than a ban. However, there are also warnings that if the reductions expand or persist, the effect on airports heavily dependent on China routes could become significant. In the aviation and tourism industries, companies are adjusting sales and reception arrangements while carefully assessing the impact on passenger numbers and business in light of bookings and airline schedules.

Significance for Japan-Shenzhen Exchange

With the refund measures extended, travel demand from China to Japan may remain subdued at least until the end of March 2026. Businesses in tourism, aviation and airport services are likely to continue assessing demand trends cautiously.

Shenzhen and Japan are also linked by a wide range of travel, including business trips, tourism and study. Schedules for individual routes need to be checked against each airline's announcements, but there is interest in possible effects on corporate travel plans, participation in trade fairs and the scheduling of exchange programs. On the other hand, as individual travel has grown in importance, some observers believe the degree of impact will vary by sector and region.

Outlook

It remains unclear how far travel demand from China to Japan will recover, including during the 2026 Spring Festival (February 17). How airlines will handle their schedules and these measures after the end of March has not yet been decided.

From the Association

The movement of people is the foundation of economic and cultural exchange between Japan and Shenzhen. The Association will continue to follow developments in flights and travel, share useful information with its members, and provide opportunities for exchange between the two regions.